Underdogs are everyone’s favorites.
With both the college football and NFL seasons underway, each week we’re going to take a look at which underdogs I like most before the pigskin begins.
Let’s check out my picks from Week 4 of the college football season and Week 3 of the NFL season.
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Miami is looking like one of the best teams in the country, loaded with talent on every level on both offense and defense, including Heisman favorite Carson Beck at quarterback.
Florida, on the other hand, limps into this game after two consecutive losses, with questions about the future of head coach Billy Napier, and concerns about quarterback DJ Lagway following a five-interception meltdown against LSU last week.
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That being said, 7.5 is a whole lot of points to be giving in a rivalry game where you have a team that is desperate like Florida, as well as outstanding defensively like the Gators are.
Despite losing 20-10 to LSU, Florida can feel good about the fact that its defense allowed just 13 points and 10 first downs in that loss, and didn’t allow any points in the second half.
You will hear plenty of people make the case this week that Miami is the best team in the country, and those claims have some merit with how impressive it has looked, but I think we’re in for a close one Saturday.
PICK: Florida (+7.5) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points or win outright
The Bengals dealt us a brutal beat last week. Jaguars +3.5 was our NFL upset pick of the week, and Cincy not only pulled off an improbable comeback to win the game, but did so by four points to cover the spread after trailing pretty much the entire game.
This week, it’s Jake Browning starting for the Bengals against Carson Wentz and the Vikings, a quarterback battle you’d expect to see in August more than September.
While Joe Burrow recovers from turf toe and will miss several months, the Bengals can at least take solace in knowing that Browning has been adequate in Burrow’s absence. In 2023, Browning started seven games at the end of the year, leading the team to a 4-3 record with 12 touchdown passes and seven interceptions.
Browning, a former Viking, beat his former team late in 2023, and now sees them again as they deal with a laundry list of injuries. Quarterback JJ McCarthy and running back Aaron Jones were just two of several players injured for the Vikings in their Week 2 loss to the Falcons, and the team is still missing Christian Darrisaw and Jordan Addison, two key players on offense.
Both teams are battling injuries, but the Vikings are simply more beat up than the Bengals, so take the points here and don’t be surprised if the Bengals win, even without Burrow.
PICK: Bengals (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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