It’s only been two weeks in the NFL regular season, but some teams are already showing their true colors.
With that, let’s look at a couple of Week 3 contests that I believe are worth a wager, involving a few of those squads.
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The Bills have been consistent in these spots over the years, dominating bad teams at home as big favorites.
Case in point: They defeated the Titans by 24 as nearly 10-point favorites last season. Later during last year, they won by 25 over the 49ers as a touchdown favorite, and they ended last season with a 40-14 win over the Jets as a 10.5-point favorite.
Buffalo did defeat the Patriots by only three laying two touchdowns. That game was after the Bills went to Detroit and won 48-42. In 2023, the Bills won by 28 twice, 26 and 21 as big home favorites.
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The trend is so solid due to the fact that Josh Allen dominates these games because he’s so much better than the opposing defense. The Bills also have an outstanding offensive line and that group tends to fair well against these poor defenses.
On the other side of the coin, the Dolphins are dead right now. They are 0-2 after losing 33-27 to the Patriots on Sunday in the heat of Miami. Both teams look exhausted after the game and now the ‘Phins are traveling on a short week to play a Bills team that got to rest its starters in the final quarter against the Jets.
The Dolphins offense is simple: It’s run the ball or get the ball out ASAP because they are worried about their quarterback getting hit. The Dolphins also have injures on the offensive line.
Still, as much as I worry about the Dolphins offense, I’m far more concerned with the defense. It is allowing 6.63 yards per play and 3.7 points per drive. That is the worst in the NFL and there’s nothing I expect to be different on Thursday. In fact, it might be worse in a shorter week.
PICK: Bills (-12.5) to win by more than 12.5 points
This number might float up to 6, but I think it’s going to close lower than the current number, so getting the Panthers now would be a good closing line value.
The Panthers have played poorly for six of their first eight quarters this season, but they did come alive at the end of their loss to the Cardinals. Carolina was down 27-3 but fought back to make it 27-22 with the ball driving to take the lead before eventually losing the game.
It was a better effort from a Panthers squad I’ve been disappointed in. Carolina finished last season on a high note, but it has just started so slow this season. Offensive line injuries aren’t going to help, but there seems to be a connection forming between Bryce Young and his receivers.
Atlanta should have won in Week 1, but it then beat the Vikings on Sunday Night Football for the entire country to see. It rushed for over 200 yards and its defense was able to keep the Vikings in check. Part of that control was Vikings’ quarterback JJ McCarthy playing poorly, but you never apologize for that.
Are the Falcons essentially a touchdown better than the Panthers on a neutral field? I don’t believe so. This is a prime spot for the wounded Panthers to play for their season with the public all over the Falcons after their win on Sunday. I don’t need the Panthers to win, I just need them to cover.
PICK: Panthers (+5.5) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points or win outright
I just think you have to wager on Cowboys games to go Over until they don’t.
The Cowboys defense is bad and has started poorly without Micah Parsons. It allowed 24 points to the Eagles before the long rain delay grounded that game to a halt. It then allowed 37 to the Giants last week in a game where Russell Wilson turned back the clock (he threw for 450 yards!).
The Bears offense isn’t great yet, but it’s hard to argue the Giants are any better on paper. The Bears will score in this game.
When the Cowboys have a healthy Dak Prescott, they are good-to-great on offense. It’s been that way for years now, and he’s showing it again with his play. The Cowboys scored 20 in Philly before the rain delay and then 37 in regulation against New York. The Bears defense, just like the offense, is a work in progress with all the injuries in the secondary. I think we see another high scoring Cowboys game.
PICK: Over 49.5 combined points scored
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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