As we get ready for Week 3 of the NFL season, the biggest game in the AFC this week is in Los Angeles, and it’s between the Broncos and Chargers.
The Chargers not only have a chance to get off to a 3-0 start, but with a win Sunday, they will have head-to-head wins against all three of their AFC West competitors.
Their hot start can be thanked, in large part, to quarterback Justin Herbert.
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Herbert is a polarizing figure among football fans.
He’s an exceptional talent, and that’s clear. He’s got immense size and arm strength. But skeptics can point to his lack of playoff success, highlighted by the four interceptions he threw in the team’s playoff loss to the Texans last year.
Until he has success in the playoffs, naysayers will always hold that against him.
But can Herbert quiet some of the doubt with an MVP award in 2025?
I believe Herbert checks several boxes when it comes to winning the award.
For starters, you essentially have to be a quarterback, and you have to win your division. There’s obviously a lot of football left, but if the Chargers can win a game they’re favored in on Sunday and get to 3-0, with the Chiefs struggling mightily, the Chargers might find themselves division champs this winter.
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Adrian Peterson was the last non-QB to win MVP (2012), and Peyton Manning in 2008 was the last non-division-winning QB to claim it (Manning’s Colts did go 12-4 that year).
So, team success matters, and being a quarterback is essential — but what gives Herbert an extra advantage is that he’s never won before.
Will 2025 be Justin Herbert’s MVP year?
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have all claimed this honor. We’ve seen in the past that close races sometimes go to the candidate who has never won the award.
Take last year, for example, when Josh Allen was named MVP over Lamar Jackson.
Voters get tired of voting for the same player, and I believe there is an edge to having a bet on Herbert.
At +850 odds, Herbert meets a lot of the criteria. With Joe Burrow hurt and the other elite AFC quarterbacks having already won an MVP (or two), I expect those odds to only get shorter as the season goes along.
PICK: Justin Herbert (+850) for NFL MVP
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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