Seattle and Arizona put on a show last Thursday night.
Will the 49ers–Rams tilt follow suit?
Also, should we expect fireworks or low scoring in the Cowboys–Jets game, considering both squads have questionable defenses?
Let’s dive into my Week 5 NFL picks.
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We’ve got back-to-back Thursday Night Football games featuring NFC West matchups.
The 49ers had dominated this series by winning six of seven games between 2020 and 2022. But the Rams have won three of the last four and are now nearly a touchdown favorite this weekend.
L.A. is a larger favorite because the 49ers are injured, which seems like a yearly tradition for Kyle Shanahan’s squad. Quarterback Brock Purdy played on Sunday in a loss to the Jaguars, but there are questions about his status for Thursday (toe soreness).
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The Rams are 3-1, and they could be 4-0 if they finished better against the Eagles. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has improved each week after missing all of training camp and the Rams appear to be clicking.
I don’t have a great read on props right now and most aren’t even up yet, as we don’t know who is playing, but I do feel good about two things: the Rams winning and the game being more low-scoring than high-powered.
It’s a short week with tired legs. The 49ers might be without Purdy and are already down multiple offensive weapons. The L.A. defensive line should feast on San Francisco. I’d do a teaser for this game on Thursday. Bring the Rams down to nearly a pick ’em and move the total up through 50.
PICK: Teaser — Rams Pick ‘Em & Under 50 points scored by both teams combined
Are the Cowboys playing? Yes.
Are they playing an opponent that can’t stop anyone? Yes.
Take the Over.
The Cowboys rank first in the NFL in yards per game and scored 20 before the weather delay in Week 1. They scored 37 against the Giants and Packers in regulation, and then added just 14 against the Bears. The Jets defense is awful and sloppy, and makes tons of mental errors and mistakes.
New York has allowed 34, 30, 29 and then 27 on Monday Night Football to the struggling Dolphins offense. Now it’s a short week and the Cowboys are coming to town.
The Dallas defense also ranks first at something else, and that’s allowing the most yards in the NFL. The Cowboys do nothing well and can’t rush the passer. New York’s offense isn’t good, but it does have some dudes. The Jets are good at wide receiver and have some juice at running back. Plus, Justin Fields can run if needed.
The Cowboys allowed 37 points to the Giants and 40 to the Packers. The Bears scored with ease against them as well. I like a high-scoring game.
PICK: Over 47.5 points scored by both teams combined
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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