Dolphins show their offseason hand by bypassing Tom Brady

Henry McKenna

AFC East Reporter

The Miami Dolphins seem to want to simplify what seemed — at least a few weeks ago — like an extremely complicated offseason. This weekend, an ESPN report emerged that Miami won’t pursue Tom Brady should the QB elect to play in 2023.

Earlier this offseason, there was a report the Dolphins were not going to pursue any other quarterbacks. They were sticking with Tua Tagovailoa.

So why this new report about Brady? Why not a report about Aaron Rodgers or Lamar Jackson or any other quarterback who might come available in the coming months? After all, the team is set on Tua. So why are they going through the effort of ruling out someone else?

Well, Brady and the Dolphins have a history. Miami got in trouble last year for tampering with Brady. It stood to reason that the Dolphins might want to test his interest this offseason, particularly with Tagovailoa struggling at the end of the season amid a bout with concussions.

But the Dolphins appear to be committed to Tagovailoa even with Tua still in concussion protocol (and skipping the Pro Bowl). They are currently not interested in the quarterback market, even if they were once exploring their options. That’s a good sign for Tagovailoa.

“Talking with the doctors and consultants and everyone we dealt with, we fully expect him back next year 100 percent ready to go,” Miami general manager Chris Grier said on Jan 16.

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It’s also a good sign for the franchise on the whole. Clearly, they think Tua will make a full recovery from the concussions. (Otherwise they would be exploring their QB options.) And the Dolphins think that he’ll be their quarterback for at least another year. He has the final year of his rookie contract in 2023 and then, if the Dolphins want, they can pick up Tua’s fifth-year option before May 1 to make sure he sticks around for 2024. That will be the final point of uncertainty this offseason — that looming decision. Tua projects to make about $22 million in 2024 under the fifth-year option.

When he was playing well, Tagovailoa was in the MVP conversation. Then he (and the Dolphins) nosedived into a free fall. Still, head coach Mike McDaniel has done nothing but praise Tagovailoa.

“I spent six months trying to convince people that he was good,” McDaniel said Jan. 15. “Yes, this is a challenging time for him. Yes, his health is of primary importance. But I would be a fool to not embrace him when he’s healthy and ready to go. We’ll all be excited for that.”

It will help for the Dolphins to establish some continuity. I wondered if Miami might consider firing one of its top coaches. The fall guy for the season was — fairly or unfairly — defensive coordinator Josh Boyer. Miami is reportedly replacing him with veteran DC Vic Fangio, who would be a terrific hire. Fangio might be to Mike McDaniel that Wade Phillips was to Sean McVay early in his Rams tenure. Fangio is an experienced defensive guru; McDaniel is an inexperienced offensive guru. They could make one hell of a team.

So if that’s the only change that takes place and the Dolphins stand pat at GM, HC, OC and QB, then we’ll see an extremely similar product on the field for Miami in 2023. That’s not a bad thing. Miami was a middling albeit streaky team with plenty of upside. A healthy Tua and a steady Fangio should yield dividends for the squad next year — and potentially for years to come.

That’s why they’re not pursuing Brady.

As talented and capital-G Great as he is, Brady isn’t likely to play for more than a year. Maybe two. He isn’t the long-term answer to an up-and-coming Dolphins team.

Given that Tua proved to be a shrewd operator in McDaniel’s system, there really isn’t any reason for the Dolphins to go after QBs of a similar caliber: Jimmy Garoppolo and Derek Carr. Aaron Rodgers would be interesting and so would Lamar Jackson.

Rodgers has a lot of the same questions as Brady. They include: When will he retire, and for how long will he be good? Plus, Rodgers would probably cost too much in the way of draft capital, given how many draft picks Miami spent on Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb in the past 12 months.

Jackson isn’t likely to make it to free agency. The Ravens will lock him up one way or another. If he becomes available, then the Dolphins should give him a look. And they’ll probably be one of 20 teams interested.

Realistically, the Dolphins can’t upgrade at quarterback. They know they can’t. So that’s why these reports are emerging. They are building to be contenders in the years to come, and they can’t burn their future by chasing Brady for a year.

Maybe the Dolphins’ offseason — which I’d originally pegged as an uncertain one — is actually solidified. They have everyone in place (even if Tua’s contract might be a distraction if Miami doesn’t opt in). They believe Tagovailoa will be healthy by the start of next year. And they’re done making big changes.

As unstable as things got for the Dolphins at the end of 2022, their decision to create certainty seems like a good omen for 2023.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @McKennAnalysis.

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