Only eight nations have ever won the men’s FIFA World Cup since the tournament began in 1930, which is what makes the “First Time Winner” betting market one of the more fascinating props on the board heading into this summer.
Brazil leads all nations with five World Cup titles, while Germany and Italy each have four.
Argentina has won three, France and Uruguay have two apiece, and England and Spain each have one title.
Argentina is currently +900 to repeat as World Cup champions (Getty Images).
However, Italy failed to qualify, meaning only seven previous champions are in this year’s field.
That leaves 41 nations with a chance to become a first-time World Cup winner.
Let’s check out the “First Time Winner” odds as of June 10.
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Will there be a First-Time Winner?
Yes: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
No: -280 (bet $10 to win $13.57 total)
These odds show just how difficult it historically has been for new nations to break through at a World Cup.
The last nation to become a first-time FIFA World Cup champion was Spain in 2010. Additionally, in the last 11 World Cups dating back to 1982, there have only been two first-time winners.
However, this summer could be different.
The expanded 48-team format in 2026 could create more volatility than ever before, especially with more nations (32) advancing into the knockout stage.
Unlike in years past, when a team only needed four knockout victories to win the World Cup, the expanded format demands a much tougher road of five consecutive single-elimination wins and eight total matches to lift the trophy.
Several countries near the top of the oddsboard are still chasing their first-ever title.
Portugal, currently listed at +800, has the shortest odds among nations that have never won a World Cup.
Portugal has the best odds of all non-World Cup winners to win this summer (Getty Images).
The Netherlands sit behind Portugal at +2000, while Norway (+3000), Belgium (+4000), Colombia (+4000) and Morocco (+5000) round out the next tier of nations still searching for their first World Cup title.
The U.S. men’s national team currently has the seventh-shortest odds among non-World Cup winners to lift the trophy in 2026, at +6000.
On their home soil, could the USA shock the world and become the ninth nation to win a FIFA World Cup?
